Tác động toàn cầu hóa, phát triển tài chính đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam
Ngày xuất bản:
25/06/2025
Ngày xuất bản Online:
25/06/2025
Chuyên mục:
Kinh tế học, Quản lý kinh tế
Nội dung chính của bài viết
Tóm tắt
Mục tiêu của bài viết nghiên cứu về mối quan hệ của toàn cầu hóa, phát triển tài chính và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam giai đoạn 1992 – 2021. Nghiên cứu sử dụng phương pháp Bayes VAR xem xét mối quan hệ giữa phát triển tài chính, toàn cầu hóa và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy, tồn tại mối tương quan dương giữa toàn cầu hóa và tăng trưởng kinh tế; toàn cầu hóa và phát triển tài chính, và mối tương quan âm giữa phát triển tài chính và tăng trưởng kinh tế. Qua đó, cho thấy Việt Nam nên chọn toàn cầu hóa làm mục tiêu trọng tâm trong thời gian tới.
Abstract
This article aims to examine the relationship between globalization, financial development, and economic growth in Vietnam from 1992 to 2021. Employing the Bayesian VAR method, the study analyzes the interconnections among these variables within the Vietnamese context. The findings reveal a positive correlation between globalization and economic growth, as well as between globalization and financial development, while identifying a negative correlation between financial development and economic growth. These results suggest that Vietnam should prioritize globalization as a key strategic objective moving forward.
Từ khóa
Phát triển tài chính; Tăng trưởng kinh tế; Toàn cầu hóa
Chi tiết bài viết
Lĩnh vực kinh tế (JEL Codes)
F40 - General - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance, F60 - General - F65 - Finance - Economic Impacts of Globalization
Tài liệu tham khảo
Agénor, P.-R. (2004). Does globalization hurt the poor?. International Economics and Economic Policy, 1, 21-51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-003-0004-3
Aghion, P., Howitt, P., & Mayer-Foulkes, D. (2005). The effect of financial development on convergence: Theory and evidence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(1), 173–222. https://doi.org/10.1162/0033553053327515
Asongu, S. A., Agboola, M. O., Alola, A. A., & Bekun, F. V. (2020). The criticality of growth, urbanization, electricity and fossil fuel consumption to environment sustainability in Africa. Science of the Total Environment, 712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136376
Arcand, J. L., Berkes, E. & Panizza, U. (2015). Too much finance?. Journal of Economic Growth, 20, 105–148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-015-9115-2
Arestis, P. & Demetriades, P. (1997) Financial development and economic growth: Assessing the evidence. The Economic Journal, 107(442), 783-799. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.1997.tb00043.x
Athukorala, P., & Tien, T. Q. (2012). Foreign direct investment in industrial transition: The experience of Vietnam. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 17(3), 446-463. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2012.694699
Baidoo, S. T., Tetteh, B., Boateng, E., & Ayibor, R. E. (2023). Estimating the impact of economic globalization on economic growth of Ghana: Wavelet coherence and ARDL analysis. Research in Globalization, 7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2023.100183
Barajas, A., Chami, R., & Yousefi, S. R. (2013). The finance and growth nexus re-examined: Do all countries benefit equally? IMF Working Papers 2013/130. International Monetary Fund.
Banbura, M., Giannone, D., & Reichlin, L. (2010). Nowcasting. ECB Working Paper No. 1275. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1717887 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1717887
Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 28(3), 423-442. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00408-9.
Beck, T., & Demirguc-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2006). Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(5), 1581-1603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2005.05.010
Bhanumurthy, N. R., & Kumawat, L. (2020). Financial globalization and economic growth in South Asia. South Asia Economic Journal, 21(1), 31-57. https://doi.org/10.1177/1391561420909007
Blinder, A. S. (2006). Offshoring: The next industrial revolution?. Foreign Affairs, 85(2), 113–128. https://doi.org/10.2307/20031915
Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J.-W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?. Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00033-0
Chang, C-P., Lee, C-C., and Hsieh, M-C. (2015). Does globalization promote real output? Evidence from quantile cointegration regression. Economic Modelling, 44, 25-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.09.018
Chang, C.-L, & Oxley, L. (2009). Industrial agglomeration, geographic innovation and total factor productivity: The case of Taiwan. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 79(9), 2787-2796. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2008.09.003
Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2004). Trade, growth, and poverty. The Economic Journal, 114(493), F22–F49. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0013-0133.2004.00186.x
Dreher, A. (2006). Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization. Applied Economics, 38(10), 1091–1110. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500392078
Ekanayake, E. M., & Thaver, R. (2021). The nexus between financial development and economic growth: Panel data evidence from developing countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14100489
Falahaty, M., & Law, S. H. (2012). The effect of globalization on financial development in the MENA Region. Transition Studies Review, 19, 205–223 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11300-012-0242-6
Samargandi, N., Fidrmuc, J., & Ghosh, S. (2015). Is the relationship between financial development and economic growth monotonic? Evidence from a sample of middle-income countries. World Development, 68, 66-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.11.010
Fuinhas, J. A., Marques, A. C., & Lopes, C. (2019). The impact of financial development and globalisation on economic growth: Evidence from a macro panel of ten countries. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 9(3), 366–388. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2019.93.366.388
Gasimli, O., Haq, I. u., Munir, S., Khalid, M. H., Gamage, S. K. N., Khan, A., & Ishtiaq, M. (2022). Globalization and sustainable development: Empirical evidence from CIS countries. Sustainability, 14(22). https://doi.org/10.3390/su142214684
Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric Analysis (7th ed.). Pearson.
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill Irwin. https://archive.org/details/basic-econometric-by-damodar-n.-gujarati-and-dawn-c.-porter/page/n1/mode/2up
Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1993). Innovation and growth in the global economy. MIT Press.
Ghosh, A. R., Ostry, J. D., & Qureshi, M. S. (2015). Exchange rate management and crisis vulnerability: A Reassessment. IMF Economic Review, 63(1), 238-276. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2014.29
Haque, M. S. (2002). Globalization, new political economy, and governance: A third world viewpoint. Administrative Theory & Praxis, 24(1), 103-124. https://doi.org/10.1080/10841806.2002.11029352
Hassan, M. K., Sanchez, B., & Yu, J.-S., (2011), Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from panel data, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 51(1), 88-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2010.09.001
Haseeb, A., Xia, E., Danish, Baloch, M. A., & Abbas, K. (2018). Financial development, globalization, and CO2 emission in the presence of EKC: evidence from BRICS countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25, 31283-31296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-3034-7
Law, S. H., & Singh, N. (2014). Does too much finance harm economic growth?. Journal of Banking and Finance, 41, 36-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.020
Levine R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688–726. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2729790
McKinnon, R. I. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Brookings Institution.
Mishkin, F. S. (2009). Globalization and financial development. Journal of Development Economics, 89(2), 164-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2007.11.004
Nasreen, S., Mahalik, M. K., Shahbaz, M., & Abbas, Q. (2020). How do financial globalization, institutions and economic growth impact financial sector development in European countries?. Research in International Business and Finance, 54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101247
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71-S102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261725
Ricardo, D. (1817). On the principles of political economy and taxation. London, UK: John Murray.
Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Harvard University Press.
Shaw, E. S. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development. Oxford University Press.
Shahbaz, M., Nasreen, S., Abbas, F., & Anis, O. (2015). Does foreign direct investment impede environmental quality in high-, middle-, and low-income countries? Energy Economics, 51, 275–287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.06.014
Slaughter, M. J. (1997). Per capita income convergence and the role of international trade. The American Economic Review, 87(2), 194–199. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2950912
Stiglitz, J. E. (2004). Capital-market liberalization, globalization, and the IMF. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 20(1), 57-71. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grh004
Kruschke, J. K. (2014). Doing Bayesian data analysis: A tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan (2nd ed.). Academic Press.
Tran, T. K. (2023). Does microfinancing, financial inclusion, and educational loans alleviate poverty and inequality: evidence from Vietnam. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 29(6), 1687–1707. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.20348
Vo, X. V., & Nguyen, H. H. (2018). Bank restructuring and bank efficiency—The case of Vietnam. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), 1520423. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1520423
Wacziarg, R., & Welch, K. H. (2008). Trade liberalization and growth: New evidence. The World Bank Economic Review, 22(2),187–231. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhn007
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data (2nd ed.). MIT Press.
World Bank. (2020). Taking stock, July 2020: What will be the new normal for Vietnam? The economic impact of COVID-19. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34268.
Aghion, P., Howitt, P., & Mayer-Foulkes, D. (2005). The effect of financial development on convergence: Theory and evidence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(1), 173–222. https://doi.org/10.1162/0033553053327515
Asongu, S. A., Agboola, M. O., Alola, A. A., & Bekun, F. V. (2020). The criticality of growth, urbanization, electricity and fossil fuel consumption to environment sustainability in Africa. Science of the Total Environment, 712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136376
Arcand, J. L., Berkes, E. & Panizza, U. (2015). Too much finance?. Journal of Economic Growth, 20, 105–148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-015-9115-2
Arestis, P. & Demetriades, P. (1997) Financial development and economic growth: Assessing the evidence. The Economic Journal, 107(442), 783-799. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.1997.tb00043.x
Athukorala, P., & Tien, T. Q. (2012). Foreign direct investment in industrial transition: The experience of Vietnam. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 17(3), 446-463. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2012.694699
Baidoo, S. T., Tetteh, B., Boateng, E., & Ayibor, R. E. (2023). Estimating the impact of economic globalization on economic growth of Ghana: Wavelet coherence and ARDL analysis. Research in Globalization, 7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2023.100183
Barajas, A., Chami, R., & Yousefi, S. R. (2013). The finance and growth nexus re-examined: Do all countries benefit equally? IMF Working Papers 2013/130. International Monetary Fund.
Banbura, M., Giannone, D., & Reichlin, L. (2010). Nowcasting. ECB Working Paper No. 1275. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1717887 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1717887
Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 28(3), 423-442. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00408-9.
Beck, T., & Demirguc-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2006). Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(5), 1581-1603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2005.05.010
Bhanumurthy, N. R., & Kumawat, L. (2020). Financial globalization and economic growth in South Asia. South Asia Economic Journal, 21(1), 31-57. https://doi.org/10.1177/1391561420909007
Blinder, A. S. (2006). Offshoring: The next industrial revolution?. Foreign Affairs, 85(2), 113–128. https://doi.org/10.2307/20031915
Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J.-W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?. Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00033-0
Chang, C-P., Lee, C-C., and Hsieh, M-C. (2015). Does globalization promote real output? Evidence from quantile cointegration regression. Economic Modelling, 44, 25-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.09.018
Chang, C.-L, & Oxley, L. (2009). Industrial agglomeration, geographic innovation and total factor productivity: The case of Taiwan. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 79(9), 2787-2796. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2008.09.003
Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2004). Trade, growth, and poverty. The Economic Journal, 114(493), F22–F49. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0013-0133.2004.00186.x
Dreher, A. (2006). Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization. Applied Economics, 38(10), 1091–1110. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500392078
Ekanayake, E. M., & Thaver, R. (2021). The nexus between financial development and economic growth: Panel data evidence from developing countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14100489
Falahaty, M., & Law, S. H. (2012). The effect of globalization on financial development in the MENA Region. Transition Studies Review, 19, 205–223 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11300-012-0242-6
Samargandi, N., Fidrmuc, J., & Ghosh, S. (2015). Is the relationship between financial development and economic growth monotonic? Evidence from a sample of middle-income countries. World Development, 68, 66-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.11.010
Fuinhas, J. A., Marques, A. C., & Lopes, C. (2019). The impact of financial development and globalisation on economic growth: Evidence from a macro panel of ten countries. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 9(3), 366–388. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2019.93.366.388
Gasimli, O., Haq, I. u., Munir, S., Khalid, M. H., Gamage, S. K. N., Khan, A., & Ishtiaq, M. (2022). Globalization and sustainable development: Empirical evidence from CIS countries. Sustainability, 14(22). https://doi.org/10.3390/su142214684
Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric Analysis (7th ed.). Pearson.
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill Irwin. https://archive.org/details/basic-econometric-by-damodar-n.-gujarati-and-dawn-c.-porter/page/n1/mode/2up
Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1993). Innovation and growth in the global economy. MIT Press.
Ghosh, A. R., Ostry, J. D., & Qureshi, M. S. (2015). Exchange rate management and crisis vulnerability: A Reassessment. IMF Economic Review, 63(1), 238-276. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2014.29
Haque, M. S. (2002). Globalization, new political economy, and governance: A third world viewpoint. Administrative Theory & Praxis, 24(1), 103-124. https://doi.org/10.1080/10841806.2002.11029352
Hassan, M. K., Sanchez, B., & Yu, J.-S., (2011), Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from panel data, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 51(1), 88-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2010.09.001
Haseeb, A., Xia, E., Danish, Baloch, M. A., & Abbas, K. (2018). Financial development, globalization, and CO2 emission in the presence of EKC: evidence from BRICS countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25, 31283-31296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-3034-7
Law, S. H., & Singh, N. (2014). Does too much finance harm economic growth?. Journal of Banking and Finance, 41, 36-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.020
Levine R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688–726. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2729790
McKinnon, R. I. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Brookings Institution.
Mishkin, F. S. (2009). Globalization and financial development. Journal of Development Economics, 89(2), 164-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2007.11.004
Nasreen, S., Mahalik, M. K., Shahbaz, M., & Abbas, Q. (2020). How do financial globalization, institutions and economic growth impact financial sector development in European countries?. Research in International Business and Finance, 54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101247
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71-S102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261725
Ricardo, D. (1817). On the principles of political economy and taxation. London, UK: John Murray.
Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Harvard University Press.
Shaw, E. S. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development. Oxford University Press.
Shahbaz, M., Nasreen, S., Abbas, F., & Anis, O. (2015). Does foreign direct investment impede environmental quality in high-, middle-, and low-income countries? Energy Economics, 51, 275–287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.06.014
Slaughter, M. J. (1997). Per capita income convergence and the role of international trade. The American Economic Review, 87(2), 194–199. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2950912
Stiglitz, J. E. (2004). Capital-market liberalization, globalization, and the IMF. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 20(1), 57-71. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grh004
Kruschke, J. K. (2014). Doing Bayesian data analysis: A tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan (2nd ed.). Academic Press.
Tran, T. K. (2023). Does microfinancing, financial inclusion, and educational loans alleviate poverty and inequality: evidence from Vietnam. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 29(6), 1687–1707. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.20348
Vo, X. V., & Nguyen, H. H. (2018). Bank restructuring and bank efficiency—The case of Vietnam. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), 1520423. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1520423
Wacziarg, R., & Welch, K. H. (2008). Trade liberalization and growth: New evidence. The World Bank Economic Review, 22(2),187–231. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhn007
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data (2nd ed.). MIT Press.
World Bank. (2020). Taking stock, July 2020: What will be the new normal for Vietnam? The economic impact of COVID-19. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34268.
Trích dẫn bài báo
Truyền, P. T. (2025). Tác động toàn cầu hóa, phát triển tài chính đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam. Tạp chí Nghiên cứu Tài chính - Marketing, 16(3), 16-29. https://doi.org/10.52932/jfmr.v16i3.615
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