Does “The Purchasing Managers' index” (PMI) affect the operational efficiency of commercial banks in Vietnam?
Ngày xuất bản:
25/11/2024
Ngày xuất bản Online:
25/11/2024
Chuyên mục:
Bài nghiên cứu
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Tóm tắt
This study investigates the impact of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on the operational efficiency of 17 commercial banks in Vietnam from 2013 to 2020. Utilizing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), the research analyzes how macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth and inflation, alongside internal bank metrics, influence bank performance. The findings reveal an inverse relationship between PMI and bank operational efficiency. Additionally, GDP growth and inflation positively affect ROE, while non-performing loans negatively impact it. These results provide valuable insights for bank managers to enhance bank performance by monitoring the PMI.
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on the operational efficiency of 17 commercial banks in Vietnam from 2013 to 2020. Utilizing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), the research analyzes how macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth and inflation, alongside internal bank metrics, influence bank performance. The findings reveal an inverse relationship between PMI and bank operational efficiency. Additionally, GDP growth and inflation positively affect ROE, while non-performing loans negatively impact it. These results provide valuable insights for bank managers to enhance bank performance by monitoring the PMI.
Từ khóa
Bank operational efficiency; Commercial banks; PMI; Purchasing Managers' Index
Chi tiết bài viết
Tài liệu tham khảo
Anjala, K. (2015). Impact of Macro Economic Variables on Call Money Market Rate in India. Vidyasagar University Journal of Commerce, 20, 124-136.
Burns, A. F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring business cycles. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Boussaada, R., Hakimi, A., & Karmani, M. (2023). Non-performing loans and bank performance: what role does corporate social responsibility play? A system GMM analysis for European banks. Journal of Applied Accounting Research, 24(5), 859-888. https://doi.org/10.1108/JAAR-05-2021-0113.
Chien, Y., & Morris, P. (2016). PMI and GDP: do they correlate for the United States? For China?. Economic Synopses, (6), 1-2. https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/econo ... states-for-china.pdf
Do, T. D., Pham, H. A. T., Thalassinos, E. I., & Le, H. A. (2022). The impact of digital transformation on performance: Evidence from Vietnamese commercial banks. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(1), 21. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15010021.
Duong, T. T. N., Phan, H. T., Hoang, T. N., & Vo, T. T. T. (2020). The effect of financial restructuring on the overall financial performance of the commercial banks in Vietnam. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(9), 75-84. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no9.075.
Erik, B., Lombardi, M. J., Mihaljek, D., & Shin, H. S. (2023). Financial conditions and purchasing managers' indices: exploring the links. Bank for International Settlements. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2306f.htm
Indriastuti, H., Putri, A., Robiansyah, R., & Anwar, H. (2022). The Effect of E-Service Quality and E-Trust on Customer Loyalty and Mediating Customer Satisfaction of Internet Banking Users. Jurnal Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan, 10(1), 24-34. https://doi.org/10.26905/jmdk.v10i1.7533.
Jaouad, E., & Lahsen, O. (2018). Factors affecting bank performance: empirical evidence from Morocco. European Scientific Journal, 14(34), 255-267. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2018.v14n34p255.
Jose, T. (2016). What is PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)? How it differs from the IIP? Indian Economy. retrieved on May 15th 2024, from .
Kalsie, A. (2015). Impact of Macro Economic Variables on Call Money Market Rate in India. Vidyasagar University Journal of Commerce, 20, 124-136.
Kheng, L. L., Mahamad, O., & Ramayah, T. (2010). The impact of service quality on customer loyalty: A study of banks in Penang, Malaysia. International Journal of Marketing Studies, 2(2), 57. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijms.v2n2p57.
King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118406.
Kirimi, P. N., Kariuki, S. N., & Ocharo, K. N. (2022). Financial soundness and performance: Evidence from commercial banks in Kenya. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 13(4), 651-667. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-11-2021-0499.
Koenig, E. F. (2002). Using the purchasing managers’ index to assess the economy’s strength and the likely direction of monetary policy. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1(6), 1-14.
Khundrakpam, J. K., & George, A. T. (2012). An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between WPI and PMI-Manufacturing Price Indices in India. RBI Working Paper Series, 2013(WPS (DEPR): 06), 1-17.
Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth: theory and evidence. Handbook of Economic Growth, 1, 865-934. https://doi.org/10.3386/w10766.
Liu, H., & Wilson, J. O. (2010). The profitability of banks in Japan. Applied Financial Economics, 20(24), 1851-1866. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2010.526577.
Meyer, D. F., & Habanabakize, T. (2019). An assessment of the value of PMI and manufacturing sector growth in predicting overall economic output (GDP) in South Africa. International Journal Of Ebusiness and Egovernment Studies, 11(2), 191-206. https://doi.org/10.34111/ijebeg.20191127.
Nguyen, K. Q. T., & Abdul Wahab, N. S. (2021). Determinants of bank performance in Vietnamese commercial banks: An application of the camels model. Cogent Business & Management, 8(1), 1979443. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2021.1979443.
Nguyen, N. Q ., & Luu, A. N. (2022). Developing the Financial Market to Stabilize Macroeconomics. Finance Journal, 782(1), 6-10.
Nguyen, T. H. V., (2015). Factors Affecting Non-Performing Loans in Vietnamese Commercial Banks. Economic Development Journal, 26(11), 80-98.
Picardo, E. (2023), The importance of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Investopedia. Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010914/importance-purchasing-managers-index-pmi.asp
PMI Index by Country 2024 (2024), retrieved on May 15th 2024, from .
Pham, H., Vuong, Q. D., & Dang, Q. V., (2023). The Impact of Non-Performing Loans on the Performance of Listed Banks on the Stock Market. Finance Journal, 802(1), 1066-110.
Regehr, K., & Sengupta, R. (2016). Has the relationship between bank size and profitability changed?. Economic Review, 101(2), 15-28.
Salas, V., & Saurina, J. (2002). Credit risk in two institutional regimes: Spanish commercial and savings banks. Journal of Financial Services Research, 22(3), 203-224. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019781109676.
Samad, A. (2015). Determinants bank profitability: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh commercial banks. International Journal of Financial Research, 6(3), 173-179. https://doi.org/10.5430/IJFR.V6N3P173.
Sherman, H. D., & Gold, F. (1985). Bank branch operating efficiency: Evaluation with data envelopment analysis. Journal of Banking & Finance, 9(2), 297-315. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(85)90025-1.
Smales, L. A. (2017). Commodity market volatility in the presence of US and Chinese macroeconomic news. Journal of Commodity Markets, 7, 15-27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.06.002.
S&P Global Market Intelligence (2022). Using S&P Global PMI survey data as an indicator of corporate earnings. retrieved on May 15th 2024, from .
S&P Global Market Intelligence (2024). Global PMI signals faster economic growth and brighter prospects at start of 2024. retrieved on May 15th 2024, from .
Prime Minister of Vietnam (2022). Decision No. 689/QD-TTg on approving the project the Scheme on Restructuring the credit institution system associated with handling of non-performing loans for the 2021 - 2025 period, issued on June 8, 2022.
Tsuchiya, Y. (2012). Is the purchasing managers’ index useful for assessing the economy’s strength? A directional analysis. Economics Bulletin, 32(2), 1025-1036. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1766380.
State Bank of Vietnam (2021), Circular No. 11/2021/TT-NHNN on Regulations on Asset Classification, Provision Levels, Provision Methods, and the Use of Provisions to Address Risks in the Operations of Credit Institutions and Foreign Bank Branches, issued on July 30, 2021.
Vu, H. T., (2021). Analysis of Factors Affecting the Operations of Commercial Banks According to the PESTEL Model and Some Proposals,' Banking Journal. Accessed May 15, 2024, from https://tapchinganhang.gov.vn/phan-tich-cac-nhan-to-anh-huong-den-hoat-dong-cua-cac-ngan-hang-thuong-mai.
Vo, X. V., & Tran, T. P. M. (2015). Profit and Risk from Income Diversification of Vietnamese Commercial Banks. Economic Development Journal, 26(8), 54-70.
World Bank (2021). Vietnam macro monitoring December 2021. The World Bank. retrieved on May 15th 2024, from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/693821639424359028/pdf/Vietnam-Macro-Monitoring.pdf.
Yoon, S. S., Lee, H., & Oh, I. (2023). Differential Impact of Fintech and GDP on Bank Performance: Global Evidence. Journal of Risk and Prime Financial Management, 16(7), 304. DOI: http://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16070304.
Burns, A. F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring business cycles. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Boussaada, R., Hakimi, A., & Karmani, M. (2023). Non-performing loans and bank performance: what role does corporate social responsibility play? A system GMM analysis for European banks. Journal of Applied Accounting Research, 24(5), 859-888. https://doi.org/10.1108/JAAR-05-2021-0113.
Chien, Y., & Morris, P. (2016). PMI and GDP: do they correlate for the United States? For China?. Economic Synopses, (6), 1-2. https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/econo ... states-for-china.pdf
Do, T. D., Pham, H. A. T., Thalassinos, E. I., & Le, H. A. (2022). The impact of digital transformation on performance: Evidence from Vietnamese commercial banks. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(1), 21. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15010021.
Duong, T. T. N., Phan, H. T., Hoang, T. N., & Vo, T. T. T. (2020). The effect of financial restructuring on the overall financial performance of the commercial banks in Vietnam. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(9), 75-84. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no9.075.
Erik, B., Lombardi, M. J., Mihaljek, D., & Shin, H. S. (2023). Financial conditions and purchasing managers' indices: exploring the links. Bank for International Settlements. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2306f.htm
Indriastuti, H., Putri, A., Robiansyah, R., & Anwar, H. (2022). The Effect of E-Service Quality and E-Trust on Customer Loyalty and Mediating Customer Satisfaction of Internet Banking Users. Jurnal Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan, 10(1), 24-34. https://doi.org/10.26905/jmdk.v10i1.7533.
Jaouad, E., & Lahsen, O. (2018). Factors affecting bank performance: empirical evidence from Morocco. European Scientific Journal, 14(34), 255-267. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2018.v14n34p255.
Jose, T. (2016). What is PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)? How it differs from the IIP? Indian Economy. retrieved on May 15th 2024, from .
Kalsie, A. (2015). Impact of Macro Economic Variables on Call Money Market Rate in India. Vidyasagar University Journal of Commerce, 20, 124-136.
Kheng, L. L., Mahamad, O., & Ramayah, T. (2010). The impact of service quality on customer loyalty: A study of banks in Penang, Malaysia. International Journal of Marketing Studies, 2(2), 57. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijms.v2n2p57.
King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118406.
Kirimi, P. N., Kariuki, S. N., & Ocharo, K. N. (2022). Financial soundness and performance: Evidence from commercial banks in Kenya. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 13(4), 651-667. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-11-2021-0499.
Koenig, E. F. (2002). Using the purchasing managers’ index to assess the economy’s strength and the likely direction of monetary policy. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1(6), 1-14.
Khundrakpam, J. K., & George, A. T. (2012). An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between WPI and PMI-Manufacturing Price Indices in India. RBI Working Paper Series, 2013(WPS (DEPR): 06), 1-17.
Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth: theory and evidence. Handbook of Economic Growth, 1, 865-934. https://doi.org/10.3386/w10766.
Liu, H., & Wilson, J. O. (2010). The profitability of banks in Japan. Applied Financial Economics, 20(24), 1851-1866. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2010.526577.
Meyer, D. F., & Habanabakize, T. (2019). An assessment of the value of PMI and manufacturing sector growth in predicting overall economic output (GDP) in South Africa. International Journal Of Ebusiness and Egovernment Studies, 11(2), 191-206. https://doi.org/10.34111/ijebeg.20191127.
Nguyen, K. Q. T., & Abdul Wahab, N. S. (2021). Determinants of bank performance in Vietnamese commercial banks: An application of the camels model. Cogent Business & Management, 8(1), 1979443. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2021.1979443.
Nguyen, N. Q ., & Luu, A. N. (2022). Developing the Financial Market to Stabilize Macroeconomics. Finance Journal, 782(1), 6-10.
Nguyen, T. H. V., (2015). Factors Affecting Non-Performing Loans in Vietnamese Commercial Banks. Economic Development Journal, 26(11), 80-98.
Picardo, E. (2023), The importance of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Investopedia. Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010914/importance-purchasing-managers-index-pmi.asp
PMI Index by Country 2024 (2024), retrieved on May 15th 2024, from .
Pham, H., Vuong, Q. D., & Dang, Q. V., (2023). The Impact of Non-Performing Loans on the Performance of Listed Banks on the Stock Market. Finance Journal, 802(1), 1066-110.
Regehr, K., & Sengupta, R. (2016). Has the relationship between bank size and profitability changed?. Economic Review, 101(2), 15-28.
Salas, V., & Saurina, J. (2002). Credit risk in two institutional regimes: Spanish commercial and savings banks. Journal of Financial Services Research, 22(3), 203-224. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019781109676.
Samad, A. (2015). Determinants bank profitability: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh commercial banks. International Journal of Financial Research, 6(3), 173-179. https://doi.org/10.5430/IJFR.V6N3P173.
Sherman, H. D., & Gold, F. (1985). Bank branch operating efficiency: Evaluation with data envelopment analysis. Journal of Banking & Finance, 9(2), 297-315. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(85)90025-1.
Smales, L. A. (2017). Commodity market volatility in the presence of US and Chinese macroeconomic news. Journal of Commodity Markets, 7, 15-27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.06.002.
S&P Global Market Intelligence (2022). Using S&P Global PMI survey data as an indicator of corporate earnings. retrieved on May 15th 2024, from .
S&P Global Market Intelligence (2024). Global PMI signals faster economic growth and brighter prospects at start of 2024. retrieved on May 15th 2024, from .
Prime Minister of Vietnam (2022). Decision No. 689/QD-TTg on approving the project the Scheme on Restructuring the credit institution system associated with handling of non-performing loans for the 2021 - 2025 period, issued on June 8, 2022.
Tsuchiya, Y. (2012). Is the purchasing managers’ index useful for assessing the economy’s strength? A directional analysis. Economics Bulletin, 32(2), 1025-1036. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1766380.
State Bank of Vietnam (2021), Circular No. 11/2021/TT-NHNN on Regulations on Asset Classification, Provision Levels, Provision Methods, and the Use of Provisions to Address Risks in the Operations of Credit Institutions and Foreign Bank Branches, issued on July 30, 2021.
Vu, H. T., (2021). Analysis of Factors Affecting the Operations of Commercial Banks According to the PESTEL Model and Some Proposals,' Banking Journal. Accessed May 15, 2024, from https://tapchinganhang.gov.vn/phan-tich-cac-nhan-to-anh-huong-den-hoat-dong-cua-cac-ngan-hang-thuong-mai.
Vo, X. V., & Tran, T. P. M. (2015). Profit and Risk from Income Diversification of Vietnamese Commercial Banks. Economic Development Journal, 26(8), 54-70.
World Bank (2021). Vietnam macro monitoring December 2021. The World Bank. retrieved on May 15th 2024, from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/693821639424359028/pdf/Vietnam-Macro-Monitoring.pdf.
Yoon, S. S., Lee, H., & Oh, I. (2023). Differential Impact of Fintech and GDP on Bank Performance: Global Evidence. Journal of Risk and Prime Financial Management, 16(7), 304. DOI: http://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16070304.
Trích dẫn bài báo
Dan, D. T., & Oanh, D. L. K. (2024). Does “The Purchasing Managers’ index” (PMI) affect the operational efficiency of commercial banks in Vietnam?. Tạp chí Nghiên cứu Tài chính-Marketing, 15(8), 86-98. https://doi.org/10.52932/jfm.v15i8.584
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