Tác động của thuế đến tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam
Nội dung chính của bài viết
Tóm tắt
Bài nghiên cứu xem xét tác động của các nguồn thu thuế đến tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam, tiếp cận từ mô hình tự phân phối độ trễ (ARDL). Tác giả đã tiến hành các bước kiểm tra tính dừng và độ trễ của các biến trong mô hình, kiểm định bound test để xác định đồng liên kết giữa các biến trước khi hồi quy ước lượng mong muốn. Kết quả kiểm định cho thấy, có mối quan hệ trong dài hạn giữa các biến trong mô hình. Sau khi ước lượng mô hình ngắn hạn và dài hạn bằng phương pháp ARDL, bài nghiên cứu cũng thực hiện các kiểm định chẩn đoán nhằm đảm bảo kết quả nghiên cứu là đáng tin cậy. Cuối cùng nghiên cứu chỉ ra rằng, thuế giá trị gia tăng có tác động tích cực đến tăng trưởng kinh tế cả trong ngắn hạn và dài hạn. Trong ngắn hạn thì thuế thu nhập doanh nghiệp có tác động tích cực, nhưng trong dài hạn thì ngược lại. Trong khi đó thuế khâu nhập khẩu chưa có cơ sở xem xét. Trên cơ sở kết quả nghiên cứu, bài viết nêu một số hàm ý chính sách thuế trong giai đoạn sắp tới khi Việt Nam tham gia Chương trình hành động chống xói mòn cơ sở thuế và dịch chuyển lợi nhuận (Base erosion and profit shifting - BEPS) về thuế suất tối thiểu toàn cầu.
Abstract
The study examines the impact of tax revenues on economic growth in Vietnam, approaching the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The authors have taken steps to check the stationarity and lag of the variables in the model and tested the bound test to determine cointegration between variables before the desired regression estimate. The test results document that there is a long-term relationship between the variables in the model. After estimating the short-term and long-term models, the study also performs diagnostic tests to ensure reliable research results. Finally, the study indicates that value-added tax positively impacts economic growth in both the short and long term. In the short term, corporate income tax has a positive impact, but in the long term, it is the opposite. Meanwhile, tax collection in import border gates has no evidence for consideration. Based on the research results, the article outlines some tax policy implications in the upcoming period when Vietnam participates in the Base erosion and profit shifting - BEPS on global minimum tax rates.
Từ khóa
ARDL; Tăng trưởng; Thuế
Chi tiết bài viết
Lĩnh vực kinh tế (JEL Codes)
C32 - Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes • State Space Models - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models • Multiple Variables, E62 - Fiscal Policy - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook, H21 - Efficiency • Optimal Taxation - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
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