FDI và chất lượng thể chế có nâng cao năng lực sản xuất? Bằng chứng thực nghiệm tại Việt Nam
Nội dung chính của bài viết
Tóm tắt
Việt Nam đang hướng đến công nghiệp hóa và hiện đại hóa, nâng cao hiệu quả năng lực sản xuất (TFP) là yêu cầu cấp thiết cho tăng trưởng bền vững. Nghiên cứu áp dụng phương pháp moment tổng quát hệ thống trên dữ liệu bảng 63 tỉnh, thành phố Việt Nam giai đoạn 2011–2024 nhằm làm rõ tác động và vai trò điều tiết của chất lượng thể chế (INS) trong mối quan hệ giữa FDI và TFP. Kết quả thực nghiệm xác lập quỹ đạo hình chữ U giữa FDI và TFP với ngưỡng tới hạn 0,69, chứng minh dòng vốn ngoại có thể gây hiệu ứng lấn át đối với khu vực trong nước trước khi kích hoạt các hiệu ứng lan tỏa năng suất. Đáng chú ý, INS không chỉ trực tiếp thúc đẩy TFP mà còn khuếch đại tác động tích cực của FDI, đặc biệt tại các tỉnh có mức thu nhập thấp. Kết quả này cho thấy chất lượng thể chế là điều kiện quan trọng giúp chuyển hóa FDI thành động lực nâng cao năng suất, qua đó mở rộng lý thuyết năng lực hấp thụ và thể chế trong bối cảnh kinh tế chuyển đổi. Bên cạnh đó, nghiên cứu mang hàm ý chính sách quan trọng trong bối cảnh Việt Nam đã tái cấu trúc còn 34 tỉnh, thành phố từ năm 2025. Các kết quả cung cấp cơ sở khoa học cho việc hoàn thiện chính sách thu hút FDI, nâng cao chất lượng thể chế và phân bổ nguồn lực sau sáp nhập, qua đó thúc đẩy năng lực sản xuất và phát triển cân bằng giữa các vùng. Nghiên cứu hàm ý rằng Việt Nam cần chú trọng nâng cao chất lượng lựa chọn dự án FDI, cải thiện hiệu quả thể chế, đồng thời đầu tư vào nguồn nhân lực và hạ tầng nhằm tối đa hóa hiệu ứng lan tỏa năng suất trên phạm vi cả nước.
Abstract
As Vietnam advances its industrialization and modernization, enhancing Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has become an urgent prerequisite for sustainable growth. This study applies the system Generalized Method of Moments to a panel dataset of 63 Vietnamese provinces and cities from 2011 to 2024 to elucidate the impact and moderating role of institutional quality (INS) on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and TFP. The empirical results establish a distinct U-shaped relationship between FDI and TFP, with a critical threshold of 0.69, demonstrating that foreign capital may initially crowd out the domestic sector before triggering productivity spillovers. Notably, INS not only directly promotes TFP but also amplifies the positive impacts of FDI, particularly in low-income provinces. These findings indicate that institutional quality serves as a vital boundary condition for transforming FDI into a productivity driver, thereby extending the applicability of absorptive capacity and institutional theories in a transitional economy. Furthermore, the study offers significant policy implications in light of Vietnam's administrative restructuring into 34 provinces and cities, set to begin in 2025. The insights provide a scientific foundation for refining FDI-attracting policies, improving institutional quality, and optimizing post-merger resource allocation, ultimately fostering productivity convergence and balanced regional development. The study implies that Vietnam should prioritize rigorous screening of FDI projects to assess their quality, improve institutional efficiency, and invest in human capital and infrastructure to maximize productivity spillovers nationwide.
Từ khóa
Chất lượng thể chế; FDI; Năng lực sản xuất; Việt Nam
Chi tiết bài viết
Lĩnh vực kinh tế (JEL Codes)
B26 - Financial Economics - History of Economic Thought since 1925, F21 - International Investment • Long-Term Capital Movements - International Factor Movements and International Business, G15 - International Financial Markets - General Financial Markets
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