Tác động của gánh nặng thuế đến quy mô khu vực kinh tế chưa được quan sát tại các nền kinh tế mới nổi ở khu vực Châu Á

Nguyễn Thị Mỹ Linh1, , Nguyễn Thị Thương 2
1 Trường Đại học Tài chính - Marketing
2 Trường Đại học Công nghiệp Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh
395
Ngày xuất bản: 25/02/2025
Ngày xuất bản Online: 25/02/2025
Chuyên mục: Kinh tế học, Quản lý kinh tế
DOI: https://doi.org/10.52932/jfmr.v16i1.725

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Tóm tắt

Gánh nặng thuế cao có thể dẫn tới việc tăng quy mô khu vực kinh tế chưa được quan sát bởi khi đó, các cá nhân và doanh nghiệp có động cơ trốn thuế để giảm chi phí và gia tăng lợi nhuận. Tuy nhiên, một số nghiên cứu khác lại chỉ ra rằng, việc gia tăng gánh nặng thuế không đồng nghĩa với việc tăng lên quy mô khu vực kinh tế chưa được quan sát. Thông qua ước lượng mô hình hồi quy theo phương pháp bình phương tối thiểu tổng quát khả thi (FGLS), nhóm tác giả đã đánh giá tác động của gánh nặng thuế đến quy mô khu vực kinh tế chưa được quan sát trong thời gian từ 2002 đến 2020 tại nhóm các nền kinh tế mới nổi ở khu vực Châu Á bao gồm các quốc gia là Trung Quốc, Ấn Độ, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Thái Lan, Ả rập Saudi, Philipines, Các tiểu vương quốc Ả rập thống nhất (UAE) và Việt Nam. Kết quả nghiên cứu đã chỉ ra rằng, gánh nặng thuế có tác động thuận chiều với quy mô khu vực kinh tế chưa được quan sát tại các nền kinh tế mới nổi ở Châu Á. Từ đó, nghiên cứu đưa ra hàm ý chính sách nhằm kiểm soát tốt gánh nặng thuế là một biện pháp hữu hiệu giúp quản lý tốt khu vực kinh tế chưa được quan sát. Ngoài ra, nghiên cứu cũng chỉ ra tác động ngược chiều của tỷ lệ thất nghiệp và lạm phát, tác động thuận chiều của độ mở thương mại đến quy mô khu vực này.

Abstract

High tax burdens are often thought to drive growth in the shadow economy, as individuals and businesses seek to evade taxes and boost profits. However, this link isn't universally accepted. This study investigated the relationship between tax burdens and the size of the shadow economy in several emerging Asian economies (China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, the UAE, and Vietnam) from 2002 to 2020. Using a feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) regression model, the authors found a positive correlation between tax burdens and the shadow economy. This research suggests that managing tax burdens effectively can contribute to better regional economic management. Besides,  the study also identified negative correlations with unemployment and inflation, and a positive correlation with trade openness. 

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