Analyzing the time-frequency impact of digital transformation on the improvement of service trade in Vietnam
Ngày xuất bản:
25/11/2024
Ngày xuất bản Online:
25/11/2024
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Bài nghiên cứu
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Tóm tắt
This study investigates the dynamic influence of digitalization (DG), gross domestic product (GDP), population (PO), and broad money supply (M2) on service trade (ST) in Vietnam from 1996 to 2022 using wavelet analysis and spectral Granger causality models. The results indicate that there is a positive nexus between variables during the sample period. While the relationship between broad money supply, population, and service trade is significant across different times and frequencies, the cases of ST-DG and ST-GDP are weak and insignificant at low frequencies. Moreover, Granger causality tests reveal that there exist bidirectional associations between the selected indicators. These findings suggest that Vietnam should focus on investment to enhance digitalization and expand the broad money supply, which would improve the service trade, attract foreign direct investment, and strengthen ties with other economies.
Abstract
This study investigates the dynamic influence of digitalization (DG), gross domestic product (GDP), population (PO), and broad money supply (M2) on service trade (ST) in Vietnam from 1996 to 2022 using wavelet analysis and spectral Granger causality models. The results indicate that there is a positive nexus between variables during the sample period. While the relationship between broad money supply, population, and service trade is significant across different times and frequencies, the cases of ST-DG and ST-GDP are weak and insignificant at low frequencies. Moreover, Granger causality tests reveal that there exist bidirectional associations between the selected indicators. These findings suggest that Vietnam should focus on investment to enhance digitalization and expand the broad money supply, which would improve the service trade, attract foreign direct investment, and strengthen ties with other economies.
Từ khóa
Broad money; Digitalization; GDP; Population; Service Trade; Vietnam
Chi tiết bài viết
Tài liệu tham khảo
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Emikönel, M. (2022). The impact of international organizations on Chinese trade as the determiner of trade: the gravity model approach. The Chinese Economy, 55(1), 26-40. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1892920
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Dao, Kieu Oanh, Nguyen, V. C., & Dinh, Si Tri Nhan (2020). Real Effective Exchange Rate, Broad Money Supply, and Trade Balance in Vietnam: An Empirical Analysis from Bounds Test to a Cointegration Approach. OSF Preprints ze89s. Center for Open Science. https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/ze89s.html
Dao, N. T., Pham, V. N., & Doan, Q. H. (2014). Analyzing the determinants of services trade flow between Vietnam and European Union: Gravity model approach. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63982/
Didenko, N., Kunze, K., & Skripnuk, D. (2015). Russian export strategy and social sector: Consequences of resource-oriented exports on population of Russia. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 6(5), 473. https://doi.org/10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n5s2p473
Djalo, M. U., Yusuf, M., & Pudjowati, J. (2023). The impact of foreign debt on export and import values, the rupiah exchange rate, and the inflation rate. Jurnal Ekonomi, 12(01), 1124-1132. https://ejournal.seaninstitute.or.id/index.php/Ekonomi/article/view/1328
Elia, S., Giuffrida, M., Mariani, M. M., & Bresciani, S. (2021). Resources and digital export: An RBV perspective on the role of digital technologies and capabilities in cross-border e-commerce. Journal of Business Research, 132, 158-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.04.010
Emikönel, M. (2022). The impact of international organizations on Chinese trade as the determiner of trade: the gravity model approach. The Chinese Economy, 55(1), 26-40. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1892920
Fernández-Macho, J. (2012). Wavelet multiple correlation and cross-correlation: A multiscale analysis of Eurozone stock markets. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 391(4), 1097-1104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2011.11.002
Gatawa, N. M., Abdulgafar, A., & Olarinde, M. O. (2017). Impact of money supply and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria (1973-2013). IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF), 8(3), 26-37. https://doi.org/10.9790/5933-0803042637
Ghobakhloo, M. (2020). Industry 4.0, digitization, and opportunities for sustainability. Journal of Cleaner Production, 252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119869
Harighi, M. F., Daei Karimzadeh, S., & Sharifi Renani, H. (2022). Impact of Financial Development on Export Diversification in Developing Selected Countries. Journal of Development and Capital, 45-61. https://doi.org/10.22103/jdc.2022.19782.1268
Herzer, D. (2017). The Long‐run relationship between trade and population health: Evidence from five decades. The World Economy, 40(2), 462-487. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12419
Hudgins, L., Friehe, C. A., & Mayer, M. E. (1993). Wavelet transforms and atmospheric turbulence. Physical Review Letters, 71(20). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.71.3279
Jiang, M., & Jia, P. (2022). Does the level of digitalized service drive the global export of digital service trade? Evidence from global perspective. Telematics and Informatics, 72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tele.2022.101853
Karamoy, H., & Tulung, J. E. (2020). The effect of financial performance and corporate governance to stock price in the non-bank financial industry. Corporate Ownership & Control, 17(2). https://doi.org/10.22495/cocv17i2art9
Kira, A. R. (2013). The factors affecting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in developing countries: The case of Tanzania. European Journal of Business and Management, 5(4), 148-158.
Lei, K., Hu, D., Wang, Z., Yu, Y. Y., & Zhao, Y. (2009). An analysis of ecological footprint trade and sustainable carrying capacity of the population in Macao. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 16(2), 127-136. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504500902808685
Limaei, S. M., Heybatian, R., Vaezin, S. M. H., & Torkman, J. (2011). Wood import and export and its relation to major macroeconomics variables in Iran. Forest Policy and Economics, 13(4), 303-307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2011.03.001
Maiti, M., & Kayal, P. (2017). Digitization: Its impact on economic development & trade. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 7(6), 541–549. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2017.76.541.549
Marcuss, R. D., & Kane, R. E. (2007). U.S. national income and product statistics. Survey of Current Business, 87(2), 32-46. https://apps.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2007/02%20February/0207_history_article.pdf
Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Nowak-Lehmann, F. (2003). Augmented gravity model: An empirical application to Mercosur-European Union trade flows. Journal of Applied Economics, 6(2), 291-316. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2003.12040596
Michelis, L., & Zestos, G. K. (2004). Exports, imports and GDP growth: Causal relations in six European Union countries. The journal of economic asymmetries, 1(2), 71-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2004.02.004
MOUSSAOUI, H. (2022). The impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Tanzania. Asian Journal of Management, Entrepreneurship and Social Science, 2(04), 150-160. https://ajmesc.com/index.php/ajmesc/article/view/153
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