Đầu tư công, chất lượng thể chế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các quốc gia Châu Á
Nội dung chính của bài viết
Tóm tắt
Đầu tư công, chất lượng thể chế và tăng trưởng kinh tế là ba yếu tố quan trọng trong việc thúc đẩy sự phát triển bền vững của một quốc gia. Nhiều nghiên cứu cho thấy, sự tác động của đầu tư công đến tăng trưởng kinh tế là không đồng nhất là do chất lượng thể chế khác nhau ở các quốc gia. Bài viết này nghiên cứu vai trò của chất lượng thể chế trong mối quan hệ giữa đầu tư công và tăng trưởng kinh tế. Sử dụng ước lượng cho dữ liệu bảng của 24 quốc gia châu Á giai đoạn 2002 – 2022, kết quả cho thấy rằng, đầu tư công có mối quan hệ dương với tăng trưởng kinh tế, biến tương tác giữa đầu tư công và chất lượng thể chế mang dấu âm. Điều này hàm ý chất lượng thể chế đang gây cản trở đến vai trò tích cực của đầu tư công đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các quốc gia. Kết quả này ủng hộ cho giả thuyết về “sanding in the wheels” của chất lượng thể chế. Chính phủ các quốc gia cần tăng cường trách nhiệm giải trình và minh bạch trong quá trình lập kế hoạch và triển khai các dự án đầu tư công để góp phần thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế. Bên cạnh đó, Chính phủ cũng cần cải thiện quy trình thẩm định và đánh giá dự án để đảm bảo các dự án được lựa chọn và triển khai dựa trên tiêu chí hiệu quả kinh tế và xã hội.
Chi tiết bài viết
Từ khóa
Chất lượng thể chế, Châu Á, Đầu tư công, Tăng trưởng kinh tế
Tài liệu tham khảo
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Abiad, A., Furceri, D., & Topalova, P. (2016). The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies. Journal of Macroeconomics, 50, 224-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.07.005
Aisen, A., & Veiga, F. J. (2013). How does political instability affect economic growth? European Journal of Political Economy, 29, 151-167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.11.001
Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(2), 177-200. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90047-0
Asghar, N., Qureshi, S., & Nadeem, M. (2015). Institutional quality and economic growth: Panel ARDL analysis for selected developing economies of Asia. South Asian Studies, 30(2). 381 – 404. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/http://111.68.103.26/journals/index.php/IJSAS/article/viewFile/3028/1239
Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). Economic growth (2nd ed.). Cambridge MA.: The MIT Press.
Barro, R., Sala-i-Martin, X., Blanchard, O. J., & Hall, R. E. (1991). Convergence across states and regions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1991(1). 107-182. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534639
Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407-443. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937943
Barro, R. J. (1998a). Economic growth and the Asian financial crisis. Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, 35(1/2), 29-43. https://www.proquest.com/openview/f0a712c3d33adab1726ccb6fa001-ea60/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=46814
Barro, R. J. (1998b). Human capital and growth in cross-country regressions. Harvard University, 1-56. http://hassler-j.iies.su.se/conferences/papers/barro.Pdf
Buchanan, B. G., Le, Q. V., & Rishi, M. (2012). Foreign direct investment and institutional quality: Some empirical evidence. International Review of Financial Analysis, 21, 81-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2011.10.001
Calderón, C., & Servén, L. (2010). Infrastructure and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Economies, 19(suppl_1), i13-i87. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejp022
Canning, D., & Pedroni, P. (2004). The effect of infrastructure on long run economic growth. Harvard University, 99(9), 1-30.
Chakraborty, S., & Dabla-Norris, E. (2011). The quality of public investment. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.2288
Chong, A., & Calderon, C. (2000). Causality and feedback between institutional measures and economic growth. Economics & Politics, 12(1), 69-81. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0343.00069
De la Croix, D., & Delavallade, C. G. (2009). Growth, public investment and corruption with failing institutions. Economics of Governance, 10, 187-219. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10101-008-0057-4
Deloughery, T. G., Evans, A., Sadeghi, A., McWilliams, J., Henner, W. D., Taylor, L. M., & Press, R. D. (1996). Common mutation in methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase: correlation with homocysteine metabolism and late-onset vascular disease. Circulation, 94(12), 3074-3078. https://doi.org/10.1161/01.CIR.94.12.3074
Denton, F. T., & Spencer, B. G. (1997). Population, labour force and long-term economic growth. McMaster University. https://core.ac.uk/reader/6454390
Egbetunde, T., & O Fasanya, I. (2013). Public expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from auto-regressive distributed lag specifi cation. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, 16(1), 79-92. http://www.efzg.hr/default.aspx?id=17772
Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485-512. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90027-D
Grigoli, F., & Mills, Z. (2014). Institutions and public investment: an empirical analysis. Economics of Governance, 15, 131-153. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10101-013-0137-y
Haque, M. E., & Kneller, R. (2015). Why does public investment fail to raise economic growth? The role of corruption. The Manchester School, 83(6), 623-651. https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12068
Hussain, I. H., Khan, Z., & Rafiq, M. (2017). An empirical analysis of the impact of compositional changes in public expenditure on economic growth: Time series evidence from Pakistan. Business & Economic Review, 9(1), 1-20. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2957058
Kataoka, M. (2005). Effect of public investment on the regional economies in postwar Japan. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 17(2), 115-139. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-940X.2005.00100.x
Kataoka, S. (2005). Functional effects of Japanese style fermented soy sauce (shoyu) and its components. Journal of Bioscience and Bioengineering, 100(3), 227-234. https://doi.org/10.1263/jbb.100.227
Kaufmann, D. (2005). Myths and Realities of Governance and Corruption (No. 8089). University Library of Munich, Germany. SSRN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.829244
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Zoido- Lobatón, P. (2000). Governance Matters: from measurement to action. Finance & Development, 37(2), 10. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/06/kauf.htm
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Zoido, P. (1999). Governance matters. Finance and Development, 37(2), 10-13. SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=188568
Keynes, J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), 209-223. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882087
Khan, M. S., & Ssnhadji, A. S. (2001). Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth. IMF Econ Rev, 48(1), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.2307/4621658
Kilishi, A. A., Mobolaji, H. I., Yaru, M. A., & Yakubu, A. T. (2013). Institutions and economic performance in sub-Saharan Africa: a dynamic panel data analysis. Journal of African Development, 15(2), 91-119. https://doi.org/10.5325/jafrideve.15.2.0091
Knack, S., & Keefer, P. (1995). Institutions and economic performance: cross‐country tests using alternative institutional measures. Economics & Politics, 7(3), 207-227. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.1995.tb00111.x
Lau, R., Stevenson, F., Ong, B. N., Dziedzic, K., Treweek, S., Eldridge, S., Everitt, H., Kennedy, A., Qureshi, N., Rogers, A., Peacock, R., & Murray, E. (2015). Achieving change in primary care—causes of the evidence to practice gap: systematic reviews of reviews. Implementation Science, 11, 1-39. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13012-016-0396-4
Leff, N. H. (1964). Economic development through bureaucratic corruption. American Behavioral Scientist, 8(3), 8-14. https://doi.org/10.1177/000276426400800303
Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), 681-712. https://doi.org/10.2307/2946696
Mitchell, D. J. (2005). The impact of government spending on economic growth. Heritage Foundation (Washington, D.C.). https://www.policyarchive.org/handle/10207/8404
North, D. C. (1990a). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press.
North, D. C. (1990b). A transaction cost theory of politics. Journal of theoretical politics, 2(4), 355-367. https://doi.org/10.1177/0951692890002004001
Peter, S. I. (2021). Government health expenditure, poverty and income inequality in Nigeria: Evidence From VECM. https://www.globalacademicgroup.com/journals/academic%20excellence%20/-GOVERNMENT%20HEALTH%20EXPENDITURE.pdf.
Pritchett, L. (2000). The tyranny of concepts: CUDIE (cumulated, depreciated, investment effort) is not capital. Journal of Economic Growth, 5, 361-384. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026551519329
Rajaram, A., Kaiser, K., Le, T. M., Kim, J. H., & Frank, J. (Ed.) (2014). The power of public investment management: Transforming resources into assets for growth. World Bank Publications.
Rodríguez‐Pose, A., Psycharis, Y., & Tselios, V. (2012). Public investment and regional growth and convergence: Evidence from Greece. Papers in Regional Science, 91(3), 543-568. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2012.00444.x
Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: the primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9, 131-165. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOEG.0000031425.72248.85
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), S71-S102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725
Shahid, M. (2014). Impact of labour force participation on economic growth in Pakistan. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(11), 89-93.
Stiglitz, J. E. (1997). The role of government in economic development. In M. Bruno & B. Plesko (Eds.), Proceeding of Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1996, (pp. 11-23). Washington DC: World Bank.
Tanzi, V., & Davoodi, H. (1998). Corruption, public investment, and growth. In H. Shibata, & T. Ihori, (Eds.), The Welfare State, Public Investment, and Growth (pp. 41-60). Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-67939-4_4
Wooldridge, J. M. (2009). Econometrics: Panel Data Methods. In Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics. https://www.cemmap.ac.uk/wp-content/legacy/uploads/cemmap/programmes/Back-ground%20reading%20May%202016.pdf
Abiad, A., Furceri, D., & Topalova, P. (2016). The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies. Journal of Macroeconomics, 50, 224-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.07.005
Aisen, A., & Veiga, F. J. (2013). How does political instability affect economic growth? European Journal of Political Economy, 29, 151-167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.11.001
Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(2), 177-200. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90047-0
Asghar, N., Qureshi, S., & Nadeem, M. (2015). Institutional quality and economic growth: Panel ARDL analysis for selected developing economies of Asia. South Asian Studies, 30(2). 381 – 404. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/http://111.68.103.26/journals/index.php/IJSAS/article/viewFile/3028/1239
Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). Economic growth (2nd ed.). Cambridge MA.: The MIT Press.
Barro, R., Sala-i-Martin, X., Blanchard, O. J., & Hall, R. E. (1991). Convergence across states and regions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1991(1). 107-182. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534639
Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407-443. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937943
Barro, R. J. (1998a). Economic growth and the Asian financial crisis. Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, 35(1/2), 29-43. https://www.proquest.com/openview/f0a712c3d33adab1726ccb6fa001-ea60/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=46814
Barro, R. J. (1998b). Human capital and growth in cross-country regressions. Harvard University, 1-56. http://hassler-j.iies.su.se/conferences/papers/barro.Pdf
Buchanan, B. G., Le, Q. V., & Rishi, M. (2012). Foreign direct investment and institutional quality: Some empirical evidence. International Review of Financial Analysis, 21, 81-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2011.10.001
Calderón, C., & Servén, L. (2010). Infrastructure and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Economies, 19(suppl_1), i13-i87. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejp022
Canning, D., & Pedroni, P. (2004). The effect of infrastructure on long run economic growth. Harvard University, 99(9), 1-30.
Chakraborty, S., & Dabla-Norris, E. (2011). The quality of public investment. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.2288
Chong, A., & Calderon, C. (2000). Causality and feedback between institutional measures and economic growth. Economics & Politics, 12(1), 69-81. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0343.00069
De la Croix, D., & Delavallade, C. G. (2009). Growth, public investment and corruption with failing institutions. Economics of Governance, 10, 187-219. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10101-008-0057-4
Deloughery, T. G., Evans, A., Sadeghi, A., McWilliams, J., Henner, W. D., Taylor, L. M., & Press, R. D. (1996). Common mutation in methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase: correlation with homocysteine metabolism and late-onset vascular disease. Circulation, 94(12), 3074-3078. https://doi.org/10.1161/01.CIR.94.12.3074
Denton, F. T., & Spencer, B. G. (1997). Population, labour force and long-term economic growth. McMaster University. https://core.ac.uk/reader/6454390
Egbetunde, T., & O Fasanya, I. (2013). Public expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from auto-regressive distributed lag specifi cation. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, 16(1), 79-92. http://www.efzg.hr/default.aspx?id=17772
Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485-512. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90027-D
Grigoli, F., & Mills, Z. (2014). Institutions and public investment: an empirical analysis. Economics of Governance, 15, 131-153. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10101-013-0137-y
Haque, M. E., & Kneller, R. (2015). Why does public investment fail to raise economic growth? The role of corruption. The Manchester School, 83(6), 623-651. https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12068
Hussain, I. H., Khan, Z., & Rafiq, M. (2017). An empirical analysis of the impact of compositional changes in public expenditure on economic growth: Time series evidence from Pakistan. Business & Economic Review, 9(1), 1-20. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2957058
Kataoka, M. (2005). Effect of public investment on the regional economies in postwar Japan. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 17(2), 115-139. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-940X.2005.00100.x
Kataoka, S. (2005). Functional effects of Japanese style fermented soy sauce (shoyu) and its components. Journal of Bioscience and Bioengineering, 100(3), 227-234. https://doi.org/10.1263/jbb.100.227
Kaufmann, D. (2005). Myths and Realities of Governance and Corruption (No. 8089). University Library of Munich, Germany. SSRN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.829244
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Zoido- Lobatón, P. (2000). Governance Matters: from measurement to action. Finance & Development, 37(2), 10. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/06/kauf.htm
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Zoido, P. (1999). Governance matters. Finance and Development, 37(2), 10-13. SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=188568
Keynes, J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), 209-223. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882087
Khan, M. S., & Ssnhadji, A. S. (2001). Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth. IMF Econ Rev, 48(1), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.2307/4621658
Kilishi, A. A., Mobolaji, H. I., Yaru, M. A., & Yakubu, A. T. (2013). Institutions and economic performance in sub-Saharan Africa: a dynamic panel data analysis. Journal of African Development, 15(2), 91-119. https://doi.org/10.5325/jafrideve.15.2.0091
Knack, S., & Keefer, P. (1995). Institutions and economic performance: cross‐country tests using alternative institutional measures. Economics & Politics, 7(3), 207-227. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.1995.tb00111.x
Lau, R., Stevenson, F., Ong, B. N., Dziedzic, K., Treweek, S., Eldridge, S., Everitt, H., Kennedy, A., Qureshi, N., Rogers, A., Peacock, R., & Murray, E. (2015). Achieving change in primary care—causes of the evidence to practice gap: systematic reviews of reviews. Implementation Science, 11, 1-39. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13012-016-0396-4
Leff, N. H. (1964). Economic development through bureaucratic corruption. American Behavioral Scientist, 8(3), 8-14. https://doi.org/10.1177/000276426400800303
Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), 681-712. https://doi.org/10.2307/2946696
Mitchell, D. J. (2005). The impact of government spending on economic growth. Heritage Foundation (Washington, D.C.). https://www.policyarchive.org/handle/10207/8404
North, D. C. (1990a). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press.
North, D. C. (1990b). A transaction cost theory of politics. Journal of theoretical politics, 2(4), 355-367. https://doi.org/10.1177/0951692890002004001
Peter, S. I. (2021). Government health expenditure, poverty and income inequality in Nigeria: Evidence From VECM. https://www.globalacademicgroup.com/journals/academic%20excellence%20/-GOVERNMENT%20HEALTH%20EXPENDITURE.pdf.
Pritchett, L. (2000). The tyranny of concepts: CUDIE (cumulated, depreciated, investment effort) is not capital. Journal of Economic Growth, 5, 361-384. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026551519329
Rajaram, A., Kaiser, K., Le, T. M., Kim, J. H., & Frank, J. (Ed.) (2014). The power of public investment management: Transforming resources into assets for growth. World Bank Publications.
Rodríguez‐Pose, A., Psycharis, Y., & Tselios, V. (2012). Public investment and regional growth and convergence: Evidence from Greece. Papers in Regional Science, 91(3), 543-568. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2012.00444.x
Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: the primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9, 131-165. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOEG.0000031425.72248.85
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), S71-S102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725
Shahid, M. (2014). Impact of labour force participation on economic growth in Pakistan. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(11), 89-93.
Stiglitz, J. E. (1997). The role of government in economic development. In M. Bruno & B. Plesko (Eds.), Proceeding of Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1996, (pp. 11-23). Washington DC: World Bank.
Tanzi, V., & Davoodi, H. (1998). Corruption, public investment, and growth. In H. Shibata, & T. Ihori, (Eds.), The Welfare State, Public Investment, and Growth (pp. 41-60). Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-67939-4_4
Wooldridge, J. M. (2009). Econometrics: Panel Data Methods. In Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics. https://www.cemmap.ac.uk/wp-content/legacy/uploads/cemmap/programmes/Back-ground%20reading%20May%202016.pdf