Ứng dụng mô hình ARDL đánh giá mối quan hệ vay nợ nước ngoài và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam
Nội dung chính của bài viết
Tóm tắt
Mục tiêu của nghiên cứu là phân tích mối quan hệ giữa nợ vay và tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 1986 - 2021. Sử dụng mô hình phân phối trễ tự hồi quy (Autoregressive Distributed Lag - ARDL) kết hợp với phương pháp kiểm định đường bao (Bound test) làm cơ sở xác định tác động dài hạn; sau đó, dùng mô hình hiệu chỉnh sai số (ECM) để phân tích tác động ngắn hạn. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy, tồn tại mối quan hệ đồng tích hợp giữa nợ vay và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam. Nợ vay nước ngoài có tác động tích cực đến tăng trưởng kinh tế trong dài hạn và trong ngắn hạn. Qua đó cho thấy, các khoản nợ vay nước ngoài cũng góp phần vào sự phát triển kinh tế của Việt Nam gia đoạn 1986 – 2021. Vì vậy, trong giai đoạn sắp tới, Việt Nam cần tận dụng tốt hơn nữa các khoản viện trợ nước ngoài, cũng như là các khoản vay, tín dụng nước ngoài để thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế, góp phần vào sự phát triển của đất nước trong tương lai.
Abstract
The objective of the study is to analyze the relationship between foreign loans and economic growth in Vietnam in the period 1986 – 2021. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied, by applying the bound test to analyze long-term effects, then using the error correction model (ECM) to analyze short-term impact. The findings show that there is a cointegrated relationship exist between foreign loans and economic growth in Vietnam. Foreign loans have a positive impact on economic growth in the long and short term. It shows that foreign loans also contribute to Vietnam's economic development in the period 1986 – 2021. In the coming period, therefore, Vietnam needs to make better use of foreign aid as well as foreign loans and credits to promote economic growth and contribute to the country's development in the future.
Từ khóa
Mối quan hệ; Nợ vay nước ngoài; Tăng trưởng kinh tế
Chi tiết bài viết
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