Regional brain drain in Vietnam: An analysis of the impact of income and regional economic conditions on the migration behavior of highly educated personnel
Main Article Content
Abstract
Purpose - This study aims to analyze and quantify the multi-dimensional impact of income and regional economic conditions on the migration behavior of highly educated personnel (Associate Professors, Professors) across key economic regions in Vietnam, amidst the increasing phenomenon of "regional brain drain".
Design/methodology/approach - The study utilizes panel data from 6 key economic regions over the period 2010-2024. Drawing on human capital and regional economics theories, the paper employs a Machine Learning ecosystem including Support Vector Regression (SVR), SHAP explanatory method, and K-Means clustering to handle non-linear relationships and isolate migration drivers.
Findings - The empirical results reveal an "Income Paradox" among intellectuals: upon reaching financial security, the pulling power of income disparity diminishes. Instead, Urbanization and the Educational ecosystem emerge as the dominant drivers, creating breakthrough impacts in attracting talent. Furthermore, expanding residential areas without synchronized amenities acts as a barrier to migration.
Practical implications - Instead of relying solely on short-term financial incentives, policymakers and local authorities must shift their focus to upgrading "soft" social infrastructure (education, healthcare) and building local "talent incubators" to retain intellectuals and promote sustainable brain circulation.
Originality/value - This study provides pioneering empirical evidence by applying Machine Learning (SVR and SHAP) to decode the non-linear impact "thresholds" in the migration behavior of Vietnamese intellectuals, successfully overcoming the limitations of traditional linear econometric models.
Keywords
Brain drain; Highly educated personnel; Regional economic conditions; Machine Learning; SVR; SHAP
Article Details
Field of Economic (JEL Codes)
C45 - Neural Networks and Related Topics - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics, J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility • Immigrant Workers - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers, O15 - Human Resources • Human Development • Income Distribution • Migration - Economic Development, R23 - Regional Migration • Regional Labor Markets • Population • Neighborhood Characteristics - Household Analysis
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